Here are my thoughts about the National Lottery, leading up to the first draw and slightly beyond until the first anniversary, as I considered my strategy for future play.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Personal Experience

The National Lottery fired my imagination when BBC1 broadcast the first draw on the evening of Saturday, 19 November 1994. Tickets went on sale in approximately 10,000 retail outlets on the Monday of that week.

In the weeks before the draw, Camelot, the operator of the National Lottery, had conducted an extensive campaign to publicise the lottery in TV advertisements, newspapers, magazines, periodicals and on-street hoardings.

I received a tri-fold promotional leaflet through my letterbox, which I kept in a scrapbook as part of my collection of National Lottery memorabilia, depicted below (© Camelot Group Plc. The National Lottery, PO Box 287, Watford WD1 8TT).

The numbers of the first draw were: 3, 5, 14, 22, 30 and 44 – with bonus 10.

To carry out the drawing, Camelot used a machine called Guinevere and a set of balls designated as ‘A‘. The order in which the balls appeared was: 30, 3, 5, 44, 14 and 22, followed by 10. However, the order does not matter as far as the allocation of prizes is concerned. Consequently, a convention evolved to list the balls in ascending order to confirm the lack of importance given to the order drawn.

For the first draw, a winning board on a play slip would resemble the figure below with only six rectangular blocks filled, not seven. This purely artistic device is one way of illustrating the use and importance of the six main balls (red) and the bonus ball (cyan), showing any pattern.

Picking three or more main balls shown would win a prize (e.g. Match 4), but choosing any of the five main balls and the bonus ball would win one of Match 5 plus bonus prizes. Thirty-nine (39) tickets had this combination, winning £46,439 each.

Despite the media hype and the hopes and expectations of the public, the first draw did not create any millionaires. Instead, seven winners shared the jackpot, each receiving £839,254. I can recall a palpable sense of disappointment in the one-hour show hosted by Noel Edmonds after the draw.

There should have been no cause for concern or dismay since there were 1,152,611 winners, who collected prizes worth £22,004,123 from ticket sales of £48,965,792.

Afterwards, there could be no doubt in anyone’s mind that the National Lottery had begun successfully, exceeding expectations triumphantly, and made a good start in raising colossal sums of money for charities – its raison d’etre. The first draw contributed about £14 million to the funds.

Winners, prizes and prize pools in each category for Draw 1 on 19 November 1994.

Category of prize	Number of winners	Prize	Prize Pool
Match 6 (jackpot)	7	£839,254	£5,874,778
Match 5 plus bonus ball	39	£46,349	£1,807,611
Match 5	2,139	£528	£1,129,392
Match 4	76,731	£32	£2,455,392
Match 3	1,073,695	£10	£10,736,950
Total:	1,152,611		£22,004,123

Until the National Lottery began, I had shown little interest in gambling, although I had bought raffle tickets occasionally to support local charities and fetes. Also, I had staked small sums regularly on the football pools over the previous twenty years.

Suddenly, an opportunity arose to participate in a game of pure chance openly and legally. Unlike the football pools, there was no need to consider how factors such as the season, weather, composition, form, and morale of opposing teams might affect the outcome.

In the lottery, a draw proceeds by removing uniquely numbered balls randomly from a machine one at a time while they tumble chaotically in a drum.

It looked so easy to win at first.

Although I acknowledged that my chances of winning the jackpot were very remote, I thought rather naively that I might be lucky enough to have a steady stream of £10 prizes with a larger one from time to time. After all, I surmised, it should not be too difficult to pick three of the six main numbers drawn.

How wrong I was! In practice, it was more difficult than I had ever imagined.

Each week I handed a completed play slip to the retailer with my stake in the expectation of winning a minor prize. The weeks passed, and by the first anniversary, I had won three times – £10 on each occasion, one of which I had overlooked at first. My winnings fell far short of the amount I had staked so regularly and eagerly.

Whatever next?

Disappointed by my lack of success in the first year, I took stock and realised that I had five options.

1. Stop playing.
   I could save money and spend it more wisely on other things. Then, a regular stake of £5 would cost £260 annually for a single weekly draw. With a minimum prize of £10, I would have to match three main numbers on alternate drawings to break even. Many of my friends had won £10, but I did not know anyone who had won as regularly as that^[1]. However, if I were to stop playing altogether, I would deny myself the opportunity of winning a substantial prize, which I was unwilling to do.
2. Play less often with the same stake.
   This action would reduce my expenditure and still give me a chance to win, but begs the question of how often. Should I play alternate draws, or adopt another strategy?
3. Spend less per draw.
   This option would also reduce my expenditure. Perhaps, I should consider having 3 or 4 goes instead of 5 per draw.
4. Spend more per draw.
   I could increase my chances by buying more tickets, but I did not know how many I should buy to be confident of winning a decent prize. My predictions to date had not been good, and there seemed no reason to believe that they might improve noticeably.
5. Continue as before.
   I decided that this was my best course of action. At the same time, I started to investigate how I might improve my chances of winning by applying rational methods rather than wild, fanciful ideas. I would modify my play only if it could be proven to be advantageous.

Notes

• [1] Some newspapers reported that a player from Deal in Kent, Wayne Elliot, had won a weekly prize in the first 26 draws of the National Lottery. I wondered then what was the secret of his success. Was it just luck?

Revision date: 5 January 2023