A Long Fascination
I have been fascinated by the National Lottery since it began in November 1994. My fascination grew as I followed its progress and learned more, collecting a lot of diverse information along the way.
Here, I chart my progress from the start.
Camelot is the operator of the National Lottery.
(© Peter Fleming / shutterstock.com 1518323732).
Table of contents
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes
Genesis
Gathering my thoughts early on, I concluded that I should write a book to focus my attention and sustain my interest. I reasoned that I might persuade a company to publish it, earn a small income from sales and enhance my reputation.
Like many aspiring new authors, I dreamt of its publication and success before returning to earth with a bump. It’s easy to let your imagination run wild, creating unrealistic expectations and anticipating over-optimistic outcomes.
Writing a book about a complicated subject like the National Lottery requires extensive knowledge and many hours of research to do justice to the topic. It would require hours of work, diligence and patience.
First steps
As a novice author, I made it my business to read as many articles about the National Lottery as I could eagerly. Also, I listened to the views and opinions of experts on radio and TV while the lottery remained newsworthy. Anything that might broaden my knowledge and deepen my understanding caught my attention.
The competition
I examined several books available in the early days of the National Lottery. But, none told me what I wanted to know.
Some seemed to be too superficial, and others barely credible.
Other authors focus so heavily on the theory of probability to make me think they have no interest or experience in the day-to-day operation of lotteries. Perhaps they just wanted to put off players. While they may not have intended to confuse, they did little to further understanding.
In 2004, John Haigh, a Reader in Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sussex, published two fascinating and detailed articles in the online Plus magazine that made me revise my opinion, namely:
I recommend that you read them.
An early start
After making a creditable start early in 1997, I abandoned the idea when I realised that my book would be very similar to some published already.
With nothing new to say, I had no unique perspective and voice! Were I to continue, I realised that my book would have to be clear, easy to read, engaging and correct factually – a tall order for a beginner.
Events intervened, and time passed without achieving much. There had been other priorities.
Early encouragement
My interest waned in the project, but I persevered with playing, won £10 occasionally and matched four numbers twice. Then unexpectedly, after playing the National Lottery almost every week for nearly three years, I had matches with three, four and five balls on 13 September 1997, having bought three similar boards on one ticket.
The prizes were £10, £112 and £3,408 respectively – much higher than average, totalling £3,530. I was overjoyed!
| Category of prize | Number of winners | Prize |
|---|---|---|
| Match 6 (jackpot) | 2 | £4,582,214 |
| Match 5 plus bonus ball | 12 | £234,985 |
| Match 5 | 517 | £3,408 |
| Match 4 | 34,319 | £112 |
| Match 3 | 803,590 | £10 |
I took a photocopy of the cheque at a local store before I deposited it in my bank account. But first I had to complete a claim form at the post office.
A new perspective
Later in 1997, I began commuting daily to Coventry by train to work as an IT contractor for Powergen, a power generation company formed after privatising the CEGB. The regular travel afforded me plenty of time to read books and newspapers.
As the millennium approached, I became friendly with another contractor, a mathematician named Stephen Foale. He had a first-class honours degree in mathematics and a PhD from UCL. From time to time, we discussed many subjects over cups of coffee, including the National Lottery. He teased me gently about this, saying I was obsessed.
Like many academics, he poured scorn over attempts to forecast which numbers would appear in a National Lottery draw, describing such attempts as futile and destined to fail. However, I speculated that there might be a viable approach that did not involve forecasting. I did not have to wait long to find out.
Interesting research
On my journey to work one morning, I spotted an article on page 13 of the Daily Telegraph, published on Friday, 26 March 1999.
Reproduced with permission from The Telegraph
The article described how three mathematicians from Liverpool Hope University had devised a winning system derived from a branch of mathematics called group theory. Subsequently, the group (comprising Dr John Brinkman, Dr David Hodgkinson and Dr John Humphreys) published a paper in The Mathematical Gazette, Vol. 85, No. 503 (Jul 2001), pp 202-207.
The Liverpool Hope method
The method applied to Lotto played with 49 balls.
To participate, you had to complete 290 boards. In return, the system guaranteed that you would win two Match 3 prizes as a minimum; usually, the result would be much more rewarding with Match 4 or Match 5 prizes.
Getting a minimum return of £20 for a stake of £290 might not seem like a bargain to most people. Undoubtedly, the cost would be prohibitive for most solo players. But, it might work for a syndicate, where the financial burden is shared.
Much depends upon how well the system might behave in the medium to long term. It would help if you had patience and perseverance to reap a decent reward, assuming that one ever materialised. Had they played this way from the beginning, for 4½ years, they would have received a return of 28%.
What interested me the most was how the system operated. Here, at last, was a method that I thought had some meat since it did not rely on forecasting.
Combinations of three odd and three even numbers occur in the 290 boards chosen without omission. The worst outcome would be a draw in which three odd and three even numbers appeared, giving rise to just two Match 3 prizes – the minimum guaranteed.
The first link below describes the efficacy of the method, and the second how the list of boards was obtained, accompanied by the underlying theory using Steiner systems.
Read: The Liverpool Hope method for further information.
Read: How the Liverpool Hope method works for further information.
Pouring over the results
I discussed this newspaper article with Dr Stephen Foale to seek his opinion on the system’s merits in the hope that he would offer some advice about investigating further. He helped me gain a better understanding of the theory behind the method.
He suggested some steps I might take to extend it with a few illustrative examples. I was left to flesh out the detail as an exercise. Soon afterwards, Stephen departed from Powergen, leaving me with several good ideas to explore. We lost contact, and I left Powergen in April 2002.
The ideas were shelved rather than forgotten. Once again, there were pressures to do other things. Pursuing this dream would look like self-indulgence to an outsider; it would have to wait. However, I continued to mull over this problem.
Follow up
I have gathered information consistently about the National Lottery, collecting historical data and keeping it up to date – mainly numbers, winners and prizes. These actions mean my previous efforts will not be in vain or become devalued.
Over the ensuing years, I have accumulated a treasure trove of data covering the entire history of the National Lottery. This data would prove later to be invaluable throughout my research.
Revision date: 8 November 2024