How can you get maximum coverage in Lotto?

How can you get maximum coverage in Lotto?

Home » Blog » Lotto » How can you get maximum coverage in Lotto?

Let’s face it. You are lucky to win any prize in Lotto. We can only do our best by maximising coverage.

You must match the six main balls drawn to win an exclusive jackpot of at least £2 million. Even so, it might be shared if there are other winners. Those are the rules.

Symbols of good luck - horseshoe, ladybird and four-leaf clover
Symbols of good luck.

Playing with 59 balls, you have one chance in 45,057,474, meaning the chances of winning are infinitesimal. However, other prizes in the hierarchy can be won more simply but have less value. Nevertheless, even they are more often than not beyond our reach.

Although buying many Lotto boards affords a greater but marginal opportunity for winning, there is the tantalising question of what you can do to maximise the outcome of your expenditure. The answers are nuanced.

Naturally, you want to win. However, the large, attractive prizes stem from the small losses made by most players, and there are millions of them. Lotteries work like this, and Lotto is no exception.

Let’s see what can be done in one approach that gets the best coverage by ensuring no triplet[1] is repeated in the boards we play.

Estimated reading time: 0 minutes


Lotto Prize Structure

The table below shows Lotto’s current prize structure.

Lotto Prizes
CategoryPrizeRemarks
Match 2Free Lucky Dip[2]If the rollover limit has been reached or Camelot has declared that Lotto must be won,
Match 2 winners receive a cash prize of £5 and a Free Lucky Dip if no one wins the jackpot.
Match 3£30[3]The jackpot is shared among the lower prize tiers in a rolldown according to a pre-determined
formula. There is a rolldown when the rollover limit has been reached, or Camelot declares
that Lotto must be won.
Match 4£140
Match 5£1,750
Match 5 plus£1,000,000
Match 6VariableThere is a minimum of £2,000,000 on Wednesdays and £3,800,000 on Saturdays.
Jackpots depend ultimately on ticket sales. Occasionally, Camelot promotes Lotto by
boosting the jackpot to guarantee a larger amount than sales justify.
e.g. £20,000,000.


Number Patterns

Of the 59 balls, 30 are odd numbers, and 29 are even.

{1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 39, 41, 43, 45, 47, 49, 51, 53, 55, 57, 59} and

{2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46, 48, 50, 52, 54, 56, 58}.

Likely composition of the six main balls drawn from 59
CompositionNo. of Combinations%Example
6 odd numbers593,7751.311123293357
5 odd and 1 even4,132,6749.23918213155
4 odd and 2 even11,126,43024.73511324649
3 odd and 3 even14,835,24032.91816232556
2 odd and 4 even10,331,68522.931417203854
1 odd and 5 even3,562,6507.911220265248
6 even numbers475,0201.121016284450
Total45,057,474100.0 

There are no deep insights here. We need to look elsewhere to begin to get to grips with the problem of winning prizes in Lotto.

Whereas jackpot winners must match all six main numbers, the minimum cash prize is obtained by matching just three of the main numbers drawn by Camelot, which suggests a solution is possible by combining two minimum prizes somehow.

This approach is promising.


Triplets

How many sets of three numbers can be chosen from 59? Indeed, there are many more options than the 18,424 available in the earlier version of Lotto that operated until Saturday, 10 October 2015.

There are 59C3 ways of choosing three numbers from 59.

$$ \begin{split}^{59}C_3& = \frac{59!}{3! × 56!}\\ \\&=\frac{(59×58×57×56×55×54×53×\dotso×6×5×4×3×2×1)}{(3×2×1)×(56×55×54×\dotso×3×2×1)}\\ \\&=32509 \end{split} $$

From now on, we shall refer to them as triplets for convenience and express them as a sequence of three numbers in ascending order, separated by commas and enclosed in braces (also known as curly brackets). e.g. {17, 39, 58}.

The number of triplets has increased by ~76% since the number of balls played rose from 49 to 59, making it more difficult to Match 3 balls than it used to be.

We can pair triplets to produce a sextet, corresponding to a draw of main numbers, provided that none of the numbers is repeated.

For example, pairing the first {1, 2, 3} and last triplet {57, 58, 59} produces the sextet: {1, 2, 3, 57, 58, 59} and pairing the last with the first has the same result. However, pairing triplets such as {1, 2, 3} and {1, 2, 59} makes no sense since balls 1 and 2 would be duplicated. Similarly, pairing any triplet with itself produces a sextet that would not be a valid Lotto board.

Test for inclusion

Using mathematical set theory, if A and B are sets built from triplets, only pairs for which \(A \cap B = \{\}\) produce valid sextets[4].

For example, \(\{5, 17, 18\} \cap \{10, 30, 59\} = \{\}\) is valid, but \(\{1, 9, 46\} \cap \{40, 46, 59\} = \{46\}\) is not. The result is not the empty set \(\{\}\) but \(\{46\}\), since 46 is common to both triplets.

Constructing a square grid comprising 32,509 rows and 32,509 columns shows the pairing symmetry. The grid contains 1,056,835,081 cells.

Symmetry of pairing triplets away from the diagonal
Symmetry of pairing triplets away from the diagonal
(32,509 rows × 32,509 columns).

A diagonal line (shown in grey) from the top left corner to the bottom right corner cuts the square into two equal triangles. It demonstrates that we need to consider only half of all possible pairings to determine how many form valid sextets, which reduces the effort considerably.

Nevertheless, despite the symmetry, even after discounting the 32,509 in the diagonal too, the number of pairs to be checked is still huge.

Taking away the number of cells in the diagonal (32,509) from the total (1,056,835,081) leaves 1,056,802,572. We need to check half this number (N). i.e. 528,401,286.

$$ \begin{align*}N& = \frac{32509 × 32508}{2}=528401286 \end{align*} $$

The checking exercise produces 491,080,954 valid sextets (92.9%) from the possible 528,401,286 pairs of triplets[5].

Why are there 491,080,954 sextets instead of 45,057,474, as might be expected?

The apparent discrepancy arises because a sextet can be formed from more than one pair of triplets, meaning we have overcounted a lot. The reverse process demonstrates this by considering how many triplets a sextet produces.

Based on 59 balls, each triplet appears 27,720 times in the 45,057,474 Lotto boards.

$$ \begin{align*}frequency& = \frac{^{59}C_6 × ^{6}C_3}{^{59}C_3}\\ \\&=\frac{45057474 × 20}{32509}\\ \\&=27720 \end{align*} $$

Triplets build sextets

Lotto boards are sextets – sets of six unique balls from 1 to 59.

There are 6C3 ways of choosing three numbers from 6.

$$ \begin{split}^{6}C_3& = \frac{6!}{3! × 3!}\\ \\&=\frac{(6×5×4×3×2×1)}{(3×2×1)×(3×2×1)}\\ \\&=20 \end{split} $$

Consider the draw held on Saturday, 26 August 2023 – draw 2,888. The main numbers were: 12, 13, 41, 42, 45 and 50.

They form a sextet: \(\{12, 13, 41, 42, 45, 50\}\) from which we can obtain 20 triplets, shown in the table below.

Triplets formed from the sextet {12, 13, 41, 42, 45, 50}
{12, 13, 41}{12, 13, 42}{12, 13, 45}{12, 13, 50}{12, 41, 42}{12, 41, 45}{12, 41, 50}{12, 42, 45}{12, 42, 50}{12, 45, 50}
{13, 41, 42}{13, 41, 45}{13, 41, 50}{13, 42, 45}{13, 42, 50}{13, 45, 50}{41, 42, 45}{41, 42, 50}{41, 45, 50}{42, 45, 50}

Each one is a candidate for a Match 3 prize.


Coverage

There are 20 chances of winning a Match 3 prize per board bought. Buying two boards should cover 40 of the basic 32,509 triplets.

 1, 15, 20, 21, 47, 51

 1,  6, 22, 29, 33, 46

However, buying the following two boards covers only 39 of the 32,509 triplets since the triplet {20, 21, 58} is duplicated.

  1, 15, 20, 21, 37, 58

10, 16, 20, 21, 41, 58

Drawing this triplet would win two Match 3 prizes; drawing any other triplet represented here would win only one Match 3 prize.

Consequently, the chances of winning a prize are enhanced significantly by the extent to which buying boards cover the 32,509 triplets. The degree of coverage is a valuable measure of likely success.

Any scheme that purports to win prizes in Lotto must be able at least to deliver Match 3 prizes reliably and consistently.

Using a suitable algorithm, I have prepared a list of 900 boards that cover 18,000 triplets without repetition for £1,800. However, the remaining 14,509 triplets can only be covered by repeating many triplets.

By buying the following boards, we could cover the available triplets fully in principle.

$$ \begin{align*}\frac{^{59}C_3}{^{6}C_3}=\frac{32509}{20}=1625.45 \; boards \end{align*} $$

We shall investigate how feasible this idea is in a later article.

The best I could do to cover all triplets took 2,183 boards, using 43,660 triplets, which means that 11,151 triplets were repeated, some more than twice. They produce a minimum guaranteed gain of twenty Match 3 prizes, whichever six balls are chosen from 59. A minimum cash prize of £600 for a stake of £4,366 is not such a bargain after all.


900 Independent boards

My list follows. However, you can generate your Lotto boards randomly by clicking on the button. Pick as many boards as you like from the result to play Lotto. The sets you obtain are self-consistent in themselves. Good luck!



Independent boards from 59 balls with unique triplets
BoardBalls
115556575859
215152535459
314849505158
414647505257
514546495356
614547485455
714344505355
814243495457
914244485256
1014142475358
1114143464859
1214144455157
1314041505456
1414042465155
1514043455258
1614044474959
1713940485357
1813941495255
1913942455059
2013943475156
2113944465458
2213536373859
2313233343558
2413031343657
2512930333756
2612931323855
2712728343755
2812627333654
2912628313556
3012526343853
3112527303259
3212528293658
3312425313352
3412426323757
3512427293553
3612428303854
3712223333857
3812122323656
3912123313758
4012021303555
4112022293459
4212023283253
4311920273151
4411921283359
4511922263058
4611923253554
4711819243456
4811820253750
4911821273852
5011823262951
5111718222849
5211720243648
5311617232756
5411516222455
5511517212557
5611415233052
5711416212650
5811417192947
5911314222551
6011315202649
6111316193252
6211213232459
6311214203346
6411215193653
6511216183048
6611112222750
6711113212954
6811114183159
6911116203858
7011011233449
7111012172655
7211013183353
731910223154
741911193748
751912213451
761913173050
771915183247
78189233655
791810212447
801811173251
81178223552
82179162549
831710193850
841711152846
85167183645
86168162857
87169142458
881610152748
89156223753
90157173144
91158152950
921510163551
93145142757
94146173343
95147133448
96148122556
97134183546
98135132847
99136122952
100137143254
101123173445
102124162944
103125123249
104126133146
105128143743
10625051545557
10725052535658
10824849545659
10924647535559
11024546485152
11124547495758
11224344525759
11324243485558
11424244495153
11524142465657
11624143455354
11724144474850
11824041515859
11924042475254
12024043464950
12124044455556
12223435383957
12323436374053
12423335374155
12523336384250
12623235364351
12723237384458
12823132344152
12923031384048
13023032333954
13122930364149
13222931373959
13322933344347
13422829385156
13522830374245
13622831364454
13722728354658
13822729324057
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14022628334857
14122630344446
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14722427314356
14822324374654
14922327304751
15022329354550
15122223324259
15222224283947
15322122384955
15422123263953
15522125313542
15622021345458
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15921920262955
16021921273750
16121819303559
16221821243351
16321822273448
16421718263158
16521719253349
16621617305255
16721618232843
16821619243658
16921516213246
17021517242942
17121518203657
17221522253043
17321415273344
17421416223556
17521417212841
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17821420243050
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18121317223757
18221213213652
18321217203547
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18721011222651
18821012243841
18921013193948
1902910233358
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1932913142640
194289192853
1952810203245
1962811162541
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199279183752
2002710213056
2012711233648
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204268212948
205269172754
2062610143442
2072612153751
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209257192245
210258172340
211259163150
2122510152852
213245203748
214246263250
215247173853
216248153149
217234143659
218235112144
219236163340
220237153958
221238133554
22234950535759
22334851535556
22434852545758
22534647495154
22634546505558
22734547525659
22834344495658
22934243505152
23034244545559
23134142454849
23234143475557
23334144465253
23433839404256
23533637394154
23633536404457
23733435374247
23833436384348
23933334394451
24033335384553
24133233374359
24233234404955
24333235394850
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24533137404551
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24832930404659
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25332728404354
25432729384447
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25632627374648
25732628344158
25832526324445
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26032425404758
26132427303452
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26332324334156
26432325303749
26532326385054
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26732224314657
26832225293555
26932122304554
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29031517273651
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29231415203543
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29431417243855
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29631315375255
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29831321273253
29931213204050
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30131215222856
30231219234345
30331112253154
30431113243645
30531115304750
30631011202859
30731012303558
30831015192432
3093910213650
3103911233252
3113913193459
312389202651
3133810233946
3143811192756
3153812172149
316378182543
317379122448
3183710131741
3193711162951
320367233457
321368142244
322369183955
323356245159
324358163652
325359152541
3263510143349
32734572656
328346252853
32944951525657
33044953545558
33144850525559
33244647485658
33344546545759
33444547505153
33544344485154
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33744244505758
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33943738434655
34043638404147
34143639424649
34243537394058
34343435434549
34443437414459
34543334404652
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34843235415357
34943133414251
35043031374754
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35243033384959
35343034395556
35442930354252
35542939414350
35642829404849
35742832395159
35842833355054
35942728414556
36042729345158
36142730404453
36242627434752
36342629313653
36442526405557
36542527353848
36642425363751
36742426334558
36842324324043
36942325314446
37042223415258
37142224385056
37242228364357
37342122354759
37442123424555
37542124304146
37642021314056
37742023394757
37841920365254
37941921263851
38041922323749
38141923334853
38241924313555
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38441820304358
38541822263954
38641823343650
38741718293745
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38941723262830
39041617243457
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39241621375253
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39541518212844
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39841421253258
39941314242852
40041315293857
40141316184051
40241317354456
40341213273339
40441214223453
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40641112264449
40741113194650
40841114235456
40941115243953
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41241012183152
41341016274950
4144910293256
4154911283158
4164912162338
4174914184149
418489242759
4194810264148
420478193057
421479225155
4224710202444
423467165859
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4254611212736
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428459172139
4294510132230
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43554344454647
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45152930445457
45252931354358
45352932335152
45452829425355
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45652728323638
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45952734464959
46052627445558
46152630415259
46252526313951
46352528334045
46452532344357
46552425424956
46652426344048
46752427374147
46852326334247
46952328375659
47052224334354
47152226353846
47252231344755
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47452123364143
47552125293859
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49551420293640
49651314414555
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50051214255052
50151215173358
50251224283557
50351112164259
50451113274052
50551120263254
50651011254648
5075910385557
5085911144751
5095912182645
5105913202346
511589345658
5125810122743
5135813213357
514578142848
5155711243058
5165715215154
517567133950
518568202535
519569193033
5205611172956
52164751525558
52264753545657
52364648495557
52464445485358
52564446505659
52664041424344
52763738415052
52863637434749
52963536414856
53063538424958
53163539434652
53263439474859
53363336395758
53463344495254
53563233424556
53663236405259
53763134355153
53863138434557
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54162934364455
54262939425154
54362830405658
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54562832374854
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54862733384651
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55362425415455
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55562430354447
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55762326435556
55862223273540
55962225314959
56062122283452
56162123253350
56262124384053
56362022303257
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56561925272943
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56861827374259
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57261617263844
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57461620365053
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57761519214956
57861529335359
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58061416324951
58161429353757
58261314213059
58361316244348
58461319284451
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58861112283839
58961114195355
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59161116234647
59261011183243
59361012214457
59461013265458
59561023293038
5966910254051
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598689114950
5996810313355
600679212635
6016712273055
60274648505354
60374552535557
60474247515759
60573940414546
60673739444855
60773740435657
60873638545658
60973441474956
61073335404951
61173234375051
61273238394349
61373133344554
61473135363947
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61772930324753
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61972831374153
62072728295052
62172734394253
62272628384755
62372631405059
62472636445152
62572529414857
62672533395659
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62872432354659
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63072327414454
63172225373842
63272228324044
63372234434658
63472123495259
63572125274647
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64071924414351
64171819234655
64271820384851
64371821222931
64471718334750
64571719213436
64671720434559
64771724395254
64871619404248
64971632364155
65071516353745
65171517263248
65271531425556
65371416204752
65471417465156
65571418405358
65671422232426
65771314273138
65871315254453
65971213374649
66071214364243
66171215384052
66271218343544
66371112213245
66471135435455
66571014295559
66671015234347
66771016223957
6687911384159
6697913325758
670789294054
6717811263353
67284246525859
67383738394753
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67683540425053
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67983138414456
68083039405152
68182930434555
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68382936424756
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68682736374445
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69282330343548
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69482227414255
69582234404557
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69782128505556
69882132374041
69982021394459
70082024384649
70182027404748
70282029315257
70381923324758
70481924252650
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72081433415458
72181314394956
72281317293453
72381318444648
72481319364043
72581320283041
72681213384251
72781214162429
72881112343752
72981115202223
73081011143538
73181017252837
7328913314547
7338922253233
73493537444651
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73693336414552
73793134444849
73893136515659
73993035365354
74093042474955
74192830394648
74292729334855
74392627425056
74492628294459
74592631414655
74692633373949
74792528435255
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75092325293439
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75292123444756
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75492022445052
75592024354041
75692025535859
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76191718364042
76291723434953
76391729385258
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76891520283338
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77191415213153
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811101617313643
812101624285356
813101521343540
814101415185056
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816101421394354
817101323324450
818101325454952
819101214324048
820101115364158
821113031445155
822112933405058
823112631344243
824112528445657
825112427284251
826112431324749
827112327395859
828112224294144
829112233394555
830112133354656
831112021434849
832112035424445
833111921233040
834111928293435
835111821394157
836111826354748
837111828365253
838111721313850
839111727353749
840111632344856
841111518254951
842111417435758
843111422303637
844111429464952
845111320375153
846111325434759
847111217244046
848122932365054
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850122630335051
851122632435358
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857122021252628
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861121926273457
862121827515456
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864121722233151
865121619284955
866121521232729
867121524344950
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872132024475556
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874131825313641
875131621353841
876131517394647
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878131531323340
879131434364758
880142732375256
881142332384546
882142334435159
883142022285558
884141920373945
885141924404454
886141928324350
887141826303255
888141727394050
889141732333653
890141528405157
891152936394852
892152126365559
893152029455658
894151923395051
895162438424547
896162330364244
897162127485157
898161921314445
899161732405458
900172130324344


Notes

  • [1] A triplet is a set of three numbers written in ascending order, separated by commas and enclosed in braces. e.g. {1, 2, 3} and {17, 30, 59}. Under normal circumstances, Lotto’s minimum cash prize of £30 is awarded for matching three numbers corresponding to a triplet. Triplets are interesting since two dissimilar triplets comprise each Lotto board (sextet).
  • [2] Some people dispute whether this is a real prize! It seems little more than a sop to players to give the illusion of a better chance of winning when the odds of winning a cash prize have worsened since the introduction of 59 balls.
  • [3] Usually, Lotto’s minimum cash prize is £30.
  • [4] In the language of set theory, the symbol ∩ is a mathematical operator that finds the intersection of two sets. i.e. their common elements. Note that {} is the empty set, implying nothing in common.
  • [5] This value can be found by calculating the square of 32509 and subtracting 32509 from the result to account for the shaded diagonal that we do not need to include. i.e. 325092 – 32509, equivalent to 32509 × (32509 – 1). Then, divide by 2.
    It is relatively easy to write a computer program in Pascal/Delphi to accomplish this task, taking advantage of the mathematical properties of sets that the languages provide.

Revision date: 29 August 2023

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